January 06, 2020
Chadd Mason, CEO The Cabana Group
Trusting the Markets Among Rising Middle East Tension
I hope everyone had a happy and heathy holiday! The older I get, the more I realize that we don’t get do overs in life. Let’s all strive to make 2020 the best year yet.
The new year started out with some rocky and even scary international developments. Our present conflict with Iran has caused some quick profit taking and reallocation of assets. Some of this is simply the result of an over-bought stock market while some is the result of reasonable concern over how widespread and violent this situation may get. Gold is hitting highs we have not seen since 2013, as investors move to safe haven assets. The stocks of defense contractors like Lockheed-Martin are seeing significant buying as well. Interest rates have dropped as investors assess the impact on economic growth here and abroad. So, just how bad could a war (declared or not) be for our investment portfolios?
The best we can do is look to history for some guidance. Military conflict over the past one hundred years has generally been good for the U.S. economy – at least over the short to medium term. Over the long term, there is strong evidence that war leads to increased debt, lost opportunity cost as money is directed toward select industries and away from everything else, inflationary pressures and taxes—not to mention the cost of human life. World War I, World War II and the Korean Conflict all resulted in GDP improvements and large jumps in manufacturing output during and shortly after the conflict. The first Gulf War kick started the nineties and the bull run in stocks. The same can be said of the second Iraq conflict following 9/11. U.S. equity markets bottomed in 2003 right as the U.S. military invaded Iraq. The one glaring exception is Vietnam. That conflict resulted in the U.S. stock market being mired in a recession throughout much of the 1970s. During that time, inflation was rampant leading to interest rates nearing 20%.
I am not smart enough to figure out all the reasons for these differences and won’t try. What I do know is that markets are good at figuring out if anything (even war) is helpful or harmful to companies’ ability to increase earnings, and then compare those earnings to receipt of bond interest – all relative to inflation (commodities). It is this ongoing process that leads to the valuation of asset classes. To me, this basic concept of investing is comforting. No matter the current news or state of world affairs, we only need to look for the fundamental data and it will eventually show up in the price of the assets that we follow and invest in. We don’t need to predict or guess. We just need to follow along.
Right now, corporate earnings are continuing to grow albeit at a slower rate. Currently the growth rate is around 8% year over year. Interest rates are historically low, and the yield curve is no longer inverted. Commodity prices are also low, although the price of oil is certainly in play. We monitor this data every day. This favorable data is reflected in the strong equity markets that we continue to enjoy. If and when things change, we will know and respond. At Cabana, we remain moderately bullish.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.
This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.
Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV, Part 2. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/.
The Financial Advisor Magazine 2018 Top 50 Fastest-Growing Firms ranking is not indicative of Cabana’s future performance and may not be representative of actual client experiences. Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor magazine. RIAs were ranked based on percentage growth in year-end 2017 AUM over year-end 2016 AUM with a minimum AUM of $250 million, assets per client, and growth in percentage assets per client. Visit www.fa-mag.com for more information regarding the ranking.
The Financial Advisor Magazine 2019 Top 50 Fastest-Growing Firms ranking is not indicative of Cabana’s future performance and may not be representative of actual client experiences. Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor Magazine. Working with a highly-rated advisor also does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance. These ratings should not be viewed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client and do not represent any specific client’s evaluation. RIAs were based on number of clients in 2018, percentage growth in total percentage assets under management from year end 2017 to 2018, and growth in percentage growth in assets per client during the same time period. Visit www.fa-mag.com for more information regarding the ranking.
Cabana claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). In addition to the firm’s third-party verification, six of Cabana’s core portfolios have been performance examined consistent with GIPS® standards. The Global Investment Performance Standards are a trademark of the CFA Institute. The CFA Institute has not been involved in the preparation or review of this report/advertisement.
No client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for any investor. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve an investor’s returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. While loss tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account. It is the responsibility of the advisor to determine what is suitable for the client. An advisor should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors may vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.